MacKinnon: Avs Best Ever? Analytics Weigh In

Is MacKinnon already the best player in Avalanche history?

In the pantheon of Colorado Avalanche hockey, few names resonate with the same reverence as Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg. Their legacies are etched into the franchise’s DNA, defined by Stanley Cups, iconic moments, and unparalleled statistical output. Yet, as Nathan MacKinnon continues to carve out a historic career, the audacious question emerges: Has he already surpassed these legends to claim the title of the greatest Avalanche player ever? From a purely data-driven, objective standpoint, this isn’t merely bar talk; its a compelling analytical exercise.

To properly evaluate such a claim, we must move beyond nostalgia and anecdote, focusing instead on quantifiable impact, efficiency, and peak dominance. While longevity and team success are critical components of a complete legacy, individual player effectiveness, particularly at their zenith, provides a more granular comparison. For the purposes of this discussion, we’re primarily comparing skaters, acknowledging Patrick Roy’s monumental contributions in net, but framing “player” as an on-ice offensive/defensive force.

The Case for MacKinnon: Unprecedented Efficiency

Nathan MacKinnon’s offensive production, especially in recent seasons, has been nothing short of staggering. Consider his points-per-game (P/GP) average since the 2017-18 season, a period where he consistently hovered around or above 1.3 P/GP, culminating in his 140-point campaign in 2023-24. This isn’t just elite; it’s historically significant. To put it in perspective, only a handful of players in the salary cap era have sustained such an offensive pace over multiple seasons.

When we look at advanced metrics, MacKinnon’s impact becomes even clearer. His Relative Corsi-for Percentage (Rel. CF%) and Relative Fenwick-for Percentage (Rel. FF%) consistently show him driving play and tilting the ice significantly in the Avalanche’s favor when he’s on the ice. He doesn’t just score; he creates a cascade of offensive opportunities through his unmatched speed and puck retrieval. According to “HockeyViz” data compiled by analyst Micah McCurdy, MacKinnon’s individual expected goals rate and shot assist numbers regularly place him in the top 1% of the league, illustrating his comprehensive offensive creation, not just finishing. He’s not simply beneficiary of good linemates; he makes linemates better, a hallmark of true generational talent. He also plays with a ferocity that can’t be taught, something often noted by analysts like Elliotte Friedman on 32 Thoughts, emphasizing his pure will to win.

MacKinnon also boasts a Hart Trophy (MVP) and a Stanley Cup, the latter being a crucial box ticked for any “greatest ever” conversation. While Sakic has more Cups, MacKinnon’s championship run in 2022 saw him as arguably the most dominant force in the playoffs, consistently delivering clutch performances. His post-season P/GP is also remarkably high, indicative of his ability to elevate his game when the stakes are highest.

The Legends: Sakic and Forsberg’s Enduring Legacy

Joe Sakic embodies longevity, leadership, and consistent excellence. His career spanned two decades, accumulating over 1,600 points and capturing two Stanley Cups. Sakic’s game was defined by his incredible shot, vision, and a quiet, unassuming leadership that inspired his teams. His P/GP for the Avalanche (0.99) is exceptional over such a prolonged period, and his playoff heroics are legendary. His adaptability across different eras of hockey further solidifies his standing.

Peter Forsberg, on the other hand, represents the epitome of a complete player. His P/GP (1.25) during his Avalanche tenure is higher than Sakic’s, and arguably among the best of all time for forwards with his two-way acumen. Foppa was a power forward who could dominate physically, make dazzling plays, and shut down opposing stars. Injuries, unfortunately, truncated what could have been an even more statistically decorated career. If we evaluate peak performance, Forsberg’s all-around game was arguably unparalleled, combining Selke-level defense with Art Ross-level offense. A quote from former teammate Adam Foote often comes to mind: “He could do things with the puck that no one else could, and then he’d run you over.”

Comparing Apples to Oranges?

Direct comparisons across different eras are always challenging. The game has evolved, goaltending is superior, and the salary cap era creates different team compositions. However, we can standardize impact. MacKinnon’s peak P/GP is higher than both Sakic and Forsberg’s average, even if their peaks were similar for shorter durations. His ability to drive offensive zone entries, generate high-danger chances, and consistently deliver at an elite level through advanced analytics arguably surpasses even Foppa’s raw offensive output per game, especially considering today’s tighter defensive schemes. He’s also on a path to multiple individual awards, much like Connor McDavid locks up his 6th Art Ross, marking him as one of the league’s perennial offensive leaders.

However, Sakic’s longevity and captaincy of two Cup-winning teams provides a narrative depth that MacKinnon is still building. Forsberg’s sheer dominance as a 200-foot player at his peak is also a strong counter-argument. What MacKinnon brings is a sustained, almost unholy offensive pace, coupled with a physical drive that makes him an unstoppable force on many nights. The eye-test confirms the analytics: when MacKinnon is on, he’s the most impactful player on the ice, period.

The Verdict: On Pace, But Not Quite Yet

So, is MacKinnon already the best? Objectively, considering his peak performance, efficiency metrics, and a Stanley Cup, he’s absolutely in the conversation. His offensive output per game and advanced statistical impact suggest his current peak rivals, and in some areas, even exceeds, the best seasons of Sakic and Forsberg.

However, to definitively claim the title of “best ever,” two factors still weigh heavily: longevity at the absolute elite level (which Sakic demonstrated over a longer period) and additional team success. MacKinnon has the Cup, but another or two would solidify his case beyond doubt. He is undeniably the most dominant offensive force in franchise history during his peak, but the overall body of work and sustained team success still lean slightly towards Sakic. MacKinnon is on a trajectory to surpass them both, and if he maintains his current pace and adds another Cup, the debate will cease to exist. For now, he’s peerless in his era, but perhaps not quite transcending all eras of the franchise’s rich history, but it sure is close.